Even without “second-order effects,” Galaxy Digital predicts that Bitcoin will rise to nearly $59,000 with a 74% gain.
Upon the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States, crypto investing company Galaxy Digital predicts a 74.1% gain in Bitcoin’s price during the first year.
The entire addressable market size for Bitcoin ETFs in the first year following introduction, according to Galaxy Digital research associate Charles Yu’s estimations published in a blog post on October 24. The 74% number was arrived at by comparing Bitcoin ETF products to gold ETFs and then calculating the probable price effect of fund inflows.
Yu predicts a 6.2% gain in Bitcoin’s price in the first month after an ETF launch, followed by a gradual decline to a 3.7% increase in the 12th month.
Yu utilized September 30 Bitcoin price data, but at the current exchange rate, a gain of 74.1% would bring the price to $59,200.
In a similar vein, Markus Thielen, head of research at digital asset financial services provider Matrixport, predicted in a post dated October 19 that if BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF proposal is granted, the price of Bitcoin may increase to between $42,000 and $56,000.
According to Yu, the total addressable market in the United States for Bitcoin ETFs will grow to $26.5 trillion in year two after their debut and $39.6 trillion in year three.
A delay or refusal of spot Bitcoin ETFs, Yu said, would affect its price forecast. Even yet, he emphasized that these projections were modest and failed to account for “second-order effects” of a sudden Bitcoin ETF acceptance.
According to Yu, “Other global/international markets will likely follow the U.S. in accepting and selling Bitcoin ETFs to a bigger range of buyers.
He then speculated that “2024 could be a big year for Bitcoin,” based on factors such as ETF inflows, the Bitcoin halving in April 2024, and “the likelihood that rates have reached their highest point or will peak in the near term.”
Also Read: Arthur Hayes argues that Bitcoin is rising due to U.S. military spending and not ETF hype
