The CEO of JAN3, Samson Mow, a key player in the acceptance of Bitcoin by nation-states, has ignited a heated controversy among the Bitcoin community.
Mow, an El Salvadorian expert in Bitcoin Bonds, recently made an audacious claim on the social media network X, suggesting that the value of Bitcoin may see a quick spike. In his statement, he made it clear that there are Bitcoin supporters who doubt the cryptocurrency’s ability to hit $1,000,000 soon after ETF funding begins to pour in. They are about to experience something delightful.
“In 2017, it took approximately nine months for Bitcoin to go from $1,000 to $20,000,” Mow said, expanding on his estimate by citing BTC’s past development. More Bitcoin was floating around on exchanges, mining was heating up the seas, and no institutional investors were pouring in, all while the block subsidy was 12.5 percent. $20k to $1000 is 20 times. Twenty times the amount, from $50,000 to $1 million.
Supply and demand are the cornerstones of Paine’s comprehensive analysis. Based on his calculations, the new supply for the next cycle is estimated to be about 792,000 BTC, with 136,000 BTC allocated for the present epoch and 656,000 BTC allocated for the next.
Paine also takes into account the possibility of selling older Bitcoin using the HODL Waves measure; he estimates that 15-20% of the existing supply of older Bitcoin might be available for sale, similar to past cycles. Twenty percent of existing Bitcoins might be sold in the next four years, which, in the most severe case, would be around 3.8 million Bitcoins.
If Bitcoin were to reach its $1 million value, according to Paine, a total investment of almost $4.5 trillion would be required. He found two main places where this money may come from.
The United States’ retirement funds, which amount to over $35 trillion, were the first point made by Paine. If only 5% of these funds were put into Bitcoin, it would be worth $1.75 trillion. Second, he took into account the over $1 trillion held by US company treasuries. The market would see an additional $100 billion if 10% of this were put into Bitcoin.
In addition to these, Paine mentioned a number of additional potential drivers of Bitcoin’s price hitting $1 million. There are a lot of unknowns, such as whether or not governments will continue to use Bitcoin and how the next five years of monetary expansion will impact the $150 trillion global bond market in particular.
Additionally, he suggested that existing holders’ constancy might lead to a lower number of old Bitcoins being available for sale.
Additional drivers, according to the expert, might include the underperformance of the past cycle, which could cause a delayed but strong market response, the redirection of money towards Bitcoin, the collapse of alternative cryptocurrencies, and so on. Finally, Paine brought attention to how innovations in technology, like Taproot, have contributed to Bitcoin’s growing popularity.
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