Benjamin Cowen says there is evidence that Bitcoin (BTC) will continue to decline prior to a new bull market
According to a prominent crypto expert, there is evidence that Bitcoin (BTC) has a long way to go before triggering a new bull run.
In a recent video update, noted crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen informs his 784,000 YouTube followers that the leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization still can fall to the $10,000 to $12,000 level before the next crypto bull market.
According to Cowen’s research based on various technical, on-chain, and sentiment-based indicators, BTC is in a position to possibly hit another bottom, much as Bitcoin did after falling below $18,000 in June of last year.
“There’s sufficient evidence to indicate that [Bitcoin] may go lower, so I’ll be open-minded to that possible result, just as I was in the summer when many people believed June was the bottom. Despite what many people thought, June was not the lowest at that time.
According to Cowen, Bitcoin’s bottom might trade as low as $10,000 owing to declining losses, indicating that BTC’s slide from peak to trough lessens with each cycle.
According to Cowen, Bitcoin had a bear market the past three times, and its price fell by at least 84% from its prior high.
“Even if we reduced our losses to $10,000 or $12,000, they would continue to decline.” For a decline of 84% from the peak, the price must go below $10,000, so you still have some room around that level; you still have some discretion to move to a lower price and theoretically still be experiencing declining losses…
Eventually, I believe 2023 will be a rough year, a recovery year, where we attempt to recover and find a bottom gently, whether it’s $15,000 or a lower low, and then we slowly build up from there.”
Using historical data from late 2018, Cowen observes that Bitcoin’s bottom tends to coincide with the Federal Reserve’s terminal rate or the agency’s ultimate long-term interest rate objective.
“We know that Bitcoin’s price bottomed out in the last cycle when the Fed implemented the terminal rate… Bitcoin bottomed at [$3,000] when we reached the terminal speed, and when the Fed started to loosen monetary policy, Bitcoin retraced but set a higher low.” At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is $22,382, a 9.37% gain over the last 24 hours.
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