Crypto Spot ETFs in U.S. on Hold, But Polymarket Predicts 70% XRP and Altcoin Approval in 2025
U.S. Regulatory Decisions on Crypto Spot ETFs Remain Pending, Though Polymarket Indicates Strong Approval Prospects for Select Altcoins in 2025
The anticipation for regulatory clearance of cryptocurrency spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) within the United States persists, yet market participants maintain a hopeful outlook.
Recent SEC Actions: Delays and New ETF Filings
Recent developments in this sphere include a further deferral by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on its verdict concerning the much-anticipated Cardano (ADA) ETF.
In parallel, 21Shares has proactively applied for a Dogecoin (DOGE) ETF, while WisdomTree’s spot XRP ETF proposal has officially entered its 21-day period for public commentary.
The SEC has also postponed its decision on Franklin Templeton’s proposed spot XRP ETF, extending the review deadline to June 17, 2025.
Prediction Market Sentiment: High Approval Odds for Major Altcoins
Amidst a steady stream of ETF-related headlines, investors are keenly observing for indications of future regulatory actions.
The prediction market platform Polymarket is offering insights into this landscape, and its current data paints an optimistic picture for several leading cryptocurrencies.
According to Polymarket’s figures, five of six prominent altcoins—XRP, Solana (SOL), Dogecoin, Cardano, and Litecoin (LTC)—are presently assessed as having a probability exceeding 68% for securing spot ETF approval during 2025.
XRP currently leads this group with an 83% likelihood, whereas Dogecoin registers the lowest odds among them at 68%.
Shifting Probabilities and Divergent Outlooks
It is noteworthy that the approval probabilities for Cardano, Dogecoin, and Litecoin have shown a marked increase since these prediction markets first opened, rising from initial levels below 50% to their current standing above 70%.
XRP and Solana, which began with robust odds, have sustained their high probability ratings, consistently fluctuating around the 80% threshold.
This optimistic sentiment is not uniformly distributed across all digital assets; for example, the meme-based cryptocurrency PEPE currently holds only a 9% chance of ETF approval on the platform.
The Significance of 2025 for Crypto ETFs and Market Access
As SEC decision timelines continue to be extended and speculation regarding ETFs intensifies, 2025 is poised to be a defining year for cryptocurrency investors who are looking for new, regulated investment vehicles to access the market.
If the odds presented by Polymarket are indicative of future outcomes, significant developments may be on the horizon for the altcoin segment.
Also Read: Polymarket creator defends platform’s ethics after election betting boom
