Arthur Hayes Projects Ethereum Valuation Surge to 10,000-15,000 Amid Evolving Global Monetary Landscape
During a macro-centric interview on the Bankless podcast, Arthur Hayes, the Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom and former CEO of BitMEX, presented a compellingly bullish thesis for Ethereum (ETH).
He argued that a significant appreciation in ETH’s value, potentially reaching $10,000 to $15,000, is a conceivable outcome driven by anticipated shifts in global liquidity paradigms and the likely imposition of capital controls under a new international monetary regime.
Sentiment Reversal and Ethereum’s Overdue Recovery
When queried about Ethereum’s recent and rapid price increase exceeding 50% within a single week, Hayes attributed this primarily to market sentiment rather than specific technical catalysts.
From Hayes’s perspective, Ethereum’s recent recovery was a belated development, following an extended period during which it was significantly overshadowed by alternative layer-1 platforms such as Solana and other high-beta digital assets.
He remarked on ETH’s prior stagnant state, widespread negative sentiment, the declining BTC/ETH ratio, and Solana’s ascent as precursor conditions to its “time” for a comeback.
The Macroeconomic Context: A “Phase Shift” in Global Monetary Order
He contextualized Ethereum’s resurgence within a broader macroeconomic framework he conceptualizes as a global monetary “phase shift.”
This involves a fundamental transition away from the long-standing preeminence of the U.S. Treasury as the world’s principal reserve asset, towards a more bifurcated system where store-of-value capital increasingly migrates towards gold and Bitcoin.
Within this evolving financial architecture, Ethereum is positioned to benefit not merely from speculative, risk-on capital inflows but also from structural alterations in capital allocation patterns, influenced by increasing financial repression and the implementation of capital controls.
Ethereum as a High-Beta Beneficiary of Liquidity Expansion
Although Hayes reiterated his conviction that gold and Bitcoin will serve as the primary neutral reserve assets in an increasingly politically fragmented global environment, he identifies Ethereum as a potent high-beta investment instrument poised to capitalize on an anticipated wave of liquidity expansion.
He stated directly, “They print the money,” alluding to expansionary monetary policies by central banks, and projected that “the consequence will be gold and Bitcoin going through the roof.”
Navigating a Non-Linear Path: DeFi and Regulatory Factors
However, Hayes anticipates that Ethereum’s path to higher valuations will not be linear.
He acknowledged its historical underperformance relative to Bitcoin but suggested that Ethereum’s opportune moment is approaching.
This could be accelerated by improvements in regulatory clarity or a renewed dynamism within the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector, particularly if DeFi projects can demonstrate sustainable cash-flow generation.
He cited initiatives such as EtherFi and Pendle as examples of token ecosystems that might eventually substantiate their valuations through fundamental economic utility.
Long-Term Strategic Positioning for Asymmetric Returns
The potential for Ethereum to achieve dramatic outperformance remains substantial, Hayes contended, particularly as the market progressively internalizes what he perceives as the initial stages of the dissolution of the half-century-long global financial system centered on the U.S. Treasury.
He said, “To keep access to capital and spend it freely, you can only own gold and Bitcoin.”
Nevertheless, for investors possessing an appetite for asymmetric returns, he characterized Ethereum as a currently demanding investment (“a hard slog”) but one that is still in the nascent phases of what could evolve into a significant upward rally.
Irrespective of whether Ethereum attains the $10,000 valuation mark in 2025 or at a later date, Hayes is strategically positioning for such an outcome.
He disclosed that Maelstrom’s investment allocation is approximately 60% to Bitcoin and 20% to Ethereum, supplemented by various other digital tokens and investments in token-based ventures.
He primarily invests in physical gold, gold mining equities, and U.S. Treasury bills outside of the cryptocurrency space.
Also Read: Arthur Hayes declared that Solana is a high-beta Bitcoin in the context of the upcoming US elections
