Charles Hoskinson, the founder of Cardano and an original Ethereum co-founder, is now invoking that comparison, suggesting Ethereum might be staring down a similar fate.
He points to inherent weaknesses and the complex dynamics introduced by Layer 2 scaling solutions as critical vulnerabilities.
Hoskinson’s 10-15 Year Lifespan for Ethereum
During a candid AMA session, Hoskinson offered a stark prognosis: Ethereum, in its current form, is unlikely to survive beyond the next decade and a half.
His rationale centers on the belief that Layer 2 networks, while designed to help Ethereum scale, will paradoxically “suckle out all of the alpha,” effectively draining value and innovative energy from the main chain.
He foresees escalating internal discord (“people will start fighting”) overwhelming even the influence of figures like Vitalik Buterin (“harder and harder… to hold it together through sheer force of will”).
This internal decay, he predicts, will push users toward alternative ecosystems, culminating in Ethereum being overshadowed by burgeoning competitors, particularly Bitcoin’s expanding DeFi capabilities (“eclipsed by Bitcoin DeFi”).
Echoes in Current Market and Network Trends
Hoskinson’s pessimistic outlook finds resonance in some of Ethereum’s current struggles.
The network is grappling with noticeable challenges: base-layer activity has reportedly slumped, key indicators like transaction fees and network usage have hit multi-year lows, and the once-touted deflationary characteristic of Ether (ETH) has reversed, weakening a core investment thesis.
Adding to these concerns is a perceived pullback from institutional players.
Recent on-chain analysis suggested notable firms like Galaxy Digital might be shifting their capital allocation from Ethereum to Solana.
Venture capital firm Paradigm also reportedly decreased its ETH holdings, transferring a significant amount (5,500 ETH) to Anchorage Digital—a move sometimes preceding sales on major exchanges like Coinbase and Binance, according to market analyst EmberCN.
Ironically, the “rollup-centric” focus on Layer 2s, a strategy designed to enhance Ethereum’s scalability,appears to be contributing to some of these issues.
These secondary layers draw activity away from the main chain, resulting in lower base-layer fee generation (which weakens ETH burning) and contributing to overall network fragmentation.
Countercurrents: Whale Accumulation Persists
Despite the gloomy assessments and observable headwinds (including Standard Chartered recently revising its 2025 ETH price forecast downwards), not all signals point downwards.
Reports suggest some large-scale investors (“whales”) are discreetly increasing their ETH positions, indicating a belief in the network’s potential for recovery or inherent long-term value, particularly at current depressed price levels.
Also Read: Hoskinson Predicts Bitcoin to Reach $250K as Tariffs Subside
