Key altcoins like Solana (SOL), Litecoin (LTC), and XRP are central to these discussions, driven by institutional interest in gaining market exposure through these regulated products.
Speculation is intensifying regarding the potential approval of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) within the United States.
A Bloomberg analyst recently offered insights into the likelihood of such approvals, placing the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under scrutiny as decision deadlines approach.
Solana and Litecoin Favored in Approval Odds
Eric Balchunas, an analyst at Bloomberg, shared his current estimations for potential spot altcoin ETF green lights.
According to a recent post on the platform X, Solana currently holds a 90% estimated chance of approval, bolstered by filings from firms such as Grayscale, VanEck, 21Shares, Bitwise, and Canary.
Litecoin supporters also have reason for optimism, as Balchunas assigned the asset’s potential ETF approval the same 90% probability.
Market participants are reportedly adjusting their strategies in anticipation of the SEC’s decisions and the associated timelines.
The final SEC deadline for Solana ETF applications is October 20th, while a ruling on Litecoin products is expected by October 2nd.
XRP, often highlighted for institutional interest, follows with estimated approval odds of 85%.
These analyst projections echo similar probability figures seen on prediction markets like Polymarket earlier in the year.
Recent SEC activity, including the delay of a decision on Franklin Templeton’s spot XRP ETF proposal until June 17th, has fueled conversations surrounding the approval process.
Balchunas also indicated that the confirmation of Paul Atkins as SEC Chair could significantly influence the outcome for these products.
Adding to the timeline discussion, Bloomberg’s James Seyffart mentioned recent SEC delays concerning Ethereum staking and Dogecoin ETFs.
He anticipated further delays for filings related to Solana and Hedera (HBAR), suggesting final deadlines for many of these altcoin ETF applications stretch into October 2025 or beyond.
The interest in altcoin ETFs follows the considerable success of spot Bitcoin ETFs launched last year, which amassed nearly $40 billion in assets and contributed to Bitcoin reaching new record highs.
This has spurred institutional demand for similar products offering exposure to other digital assets.
Influence of Political Environment on Approval Odds
The high estimated approval probabilities (reaching 90%) are partly attributed by analysts to a perceived shift towards a more accommodating regulatory approach to cryptocurrencies under the current Trump administration.
This scenario contrasts with the previous environment under former SEC Chair Gary Gensler, where approvals for spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs faced significant hurdles, including legal challenges.
Gensler’s tenure was often characterized by stricter regulatory interpretations, which some industry participants viewed as impediments to innovation.
Also Read: Trump Administration’s First 100 Days: Developments in Cryptocurrency Policy
