Bitcoin may see a “major bear market” following the halving in 2024

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The ‘Bitcoin Halving’ event, which halves the block subsidy earned by Bitcoin miners, is widely considered to be a price catalyst in the cryptocurrency market.

On August 10, a Twitter (X) user named CrediBULL Crypto, who has over 340,000 followers, published a disputed study.

According to his analysis, Bitcoin is still in the bull market cycle that began in 2018 rather than the generally acknowledged cycle of 2020. CrediBULL, like many others, thinks this cycle isn’t over yet and forecasts a new high of more than November 2021’s $69,000.

This notion is not original to this crypto analyst. In an article published on July 1, CrediBULL predicted that Bitcoin’s value would drop from the widely held belief that it will reach $100,000 by December 2021 to $40,000 instead.

Each bull run (or “impulse”) throughout the current cycle (2018-2024) was followed by a retracement and then consolidation. The “parabolic move” that followed each consolidation phase lasted fewer days than the consolidation phase before it.

This assessment conforms to the ‘Elliot Wave’s cycles hypothesis,’ a standard TA indication. According to Elliot Wave theory, the initial impulse (1) begins in 2019, followed by a retrace (2) in 2020, a fresh impulse (3) in 2021, and finally the last retrace (4) that we are now experiencing in preparation for what may be the final impulse (5).

After Bitcoin halved in April and May 2024, CrediBULL Crypto expects the start of a “secular bear market,” which will surprise many investors expecting further higher prices.

The future of Bitcoin, together with public opinion on the broader crypto and macroeconomic environment, will determine whether or not this crypto asset can live up to the aforementioned expert projections.

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