PlanB Predicts a Post-Halving Bitcoin Pump When a Historically Bullish Indicator Turns Positive


According to quant analyst PlanB, Bitcoin (BTC) is about to enter a period that has traditionally occurred with price increases.

Updates to PlanB’s stock-to-flow (S2F) model, first developed for more conventional commodities and later applied to Bitcoin, are detailed in a new strategy session.

Predicting an asset’s performance using the S2F model is based on the premise that the price goes up as the asset’s scarcity goes down. Printing a red dot immediately after the halving has historically been PlanB’s S2F model’s indication to launch powerful bull runs.

“A fresh cycle begins in the first month after the halving. Therefore, I believe that Bitcoin will continue to pump after the halving, just like it did in 2020, 2017, and 2013 following the previous halving cycles. Time will tell, but I believe a pump will be seen again; after all, it is the stock-to-flow model’s central component.”

In addition, PlanB considers the realized price measure, which divides the total value of all coins in circulation by the number of BTC in circulation and records the price at which they were last transacted on-chain. According to him, the five-month realized price level has always provided solid support throughout bull markets.

“Since we saw it in April, I anticipate that it will occur again. Although April was a down month, the market was still bullish. At $60,000, the five-month realized price was a solid support level, and Bitcoin was trading just below that at $59,000 or $58,000. However, in terms of monthly closures, that level served as a springboard for this month’s rebound in May.”

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